The Ceridan-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, fell 0.5 percent in September.
August and September produced the worst combined two-month decline since January and February of this year. The decline indicates a four month period of small to no increases in over-the-road movement of produce, raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods.
The Pulse of Commerce Index forecasts GDP growth in the third quarter of this year to be between 0.7 percent and 1.7 percent. Chief Pulse of Commerce Index economist and director of the UCLA Andreson Forecast, Ed Leamer, said the future does not look promising. "The PCI tells us that inventory is stalled on the nation's thoroughfares. The good months of growth are now seemingly in our rear view mirror," Leamer said. "Our economy's loss in traction is alarming and for the 'Cassandras of the double-dip,' may foretell a coming decline in GDP and spike in unemployment."
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